Mathematical models predict early surge in flu cases for 2024

Advanced forecasting model combines multiple data sources

The research, led by Hao Wang, a professor and director of the Interdisciplinary Lab for Mathematical Ecology and Epidemiology at the University of Alberta, involves analyzing data collected from 2015 to September 2024. The data incorporates various factors, including weather patterns, public health policies, and movement data obtained from cell phones, to forecast how diseases like influenza and COVID-19 might spread. According to Wang, this model suggests that flu cases in the United States could see a significant surge by late November 2024, with an estimated 1,600 new confirmed cases per day. This represents nearly double the number of cases recorded during the same period in 2023.

Wang emphasized that although the data used for this prediction is based on U.S. data, similar conclusions could likely be drawn if Canadian data were applied. He hopes the forecast can assist public health officials in making timely decisions, particularly regarding the allocation of resources, such as hospital beds and the promotion of early vaccination campaigns.

Earlier flu surge in 2024 and its implications

One of the key findings of the research is that the flu surge expected in 2024 will likely occur a month earlier than the peak observed in 2023. This shift in timing presents challenges for healthcare systems, which typically prepare for the flu season to peak between late December and February. Junling Ma, a professor at the University of Victoria who is familiar with the model but was not involved in the research, believes the model accurately captures key features of influenza spread. He indicated that the early surge prediction aligns with the model’s ability to analyze external conditions, suggesting that public health systems should trust the findings and prepare accordingly.

Ma added that early preparation would involve ensuring hospitals have sufficient capacity, particularly in terms of available beds, and urging the public to get vaccinated earlier than usual. Flu shots, which are often administered in the fall, could become even more critical this year as an earlier flu wave may coincide with other respiratory illnesses like COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Current flu vaccination efforts and public health response

In Canada, where influenza remains one of the top 10 leading causes of death and results in thousands of hospitalizations annually, the urgency for vaccination is apparent. Last year, Alberta experienced its deadliest flu season in 15 years, with only a small portion of the population—less than a quarter—receiving the flu shot. In response to these concerns, the Alberta provincial government has announced that flu shot appointments will be available starting October 15, 2024. Health Minister Adriana LaGrange has stated that the government expects a flu season similar to last year, with policies and procedures in place to ensure healthcare systems can meet the demand.

Despite these preparations, experts warn that an earlier flu surge, as predicted by the mathematical model, could catch health systems off guard if proper measures are not taken. André Gagnon, a spokesperson for the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), acknowledged the difficulty of predicting flu behavior but noted that the agency typically expects the flu season to begin in mid-November and peak by late December. Gagnon also confirmed that PHAC does not currently use artificial intelligence (AI) in its forecasting, relying instead on more traditional methods. Nevertheless, PHAC continues to monitor flu patterns weekly and report any unexpected changes.

In Edmonton, Alberta, local healthcare providers are already observing increased demand for flu and COVID-19 vaccines. Ghada Haggag, a pharmacist and owner of All Care Pharmacy in Edmonton’s Capilano neighborhood, noted that demand for vaccinations has surged compared to 2023. She mentioned that many seniors in the area have already booked appointments for both flu and COVID-19 shots, as well as RSV vaccines, which must be administered separately from other vaccines. Haggag believes that public awareness of the potential early surge has driven this increase in demand, as people seek to protect themselves from multiple respiratory illnesses this season.

The forecasted early surge in flu cases for 2024 presents new challenges for public health officials and healthcare providers in both the United States and Canada. The mathematical model developed by Hao Wang and his colleagues offers a valuable tool for predicting how flu cases will develop and provides a warning that the healthcare system must be prepared for an earlier-than-expected spike in infections. By using a combination of machine learning, historical data, and external factors like weather and mobility patterns, the model offers a precise and data-driven approach to understanding disease transmission.

With flu season approaching rapidly, the emphasis on early vaccination and ensuring adequate healthcare resources becomes crucial. The experiences of 2023, coupled with the forecasts for 2024, highlight the importance of staying ahead of the curve to minimize the impact of the flu on public health. As countries like Canada and the United States brace for the upcoming flu season, the key to mitigating the effects will be timely action, informed by models that can accurately predict disease patterns in the face of an ever-changing landscape of infectious diseases.

source: CBC